A recent poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from September 29 to October 3 shows Kamala Harris now leading Donald Trump nationally by a narrow margin, with 49 percent support compared to Trump’s 46 percent. While Harris’s lead remains within the poll’s margin of error, it highlights a subtle yet noticeable shift in her favor. These gains for Harris are particularly evident in areas like temperament, trustworthiness, and representing change. The Times pointed out that the tight race suggests this election could be one of the closest in modern political history.
In mid-September, a similar NYT/Siena poll showed both candidates tied at 47 percent. Since then, Harris has bolstered her support among older voters and has begun making progress among Republican voters. In the latest poll, 9 percent of Republicans expressed support for Harris, a slight increase from 5 percent in the previous month. Harris has also managed to narrow the gap on the issue of change, a crucial factor in this election cycle. Many voters have consistently reported feeling that the country is on the wrong track, and the question of which candidate can best enact change has become increasingly important.
The poll’s findings reveal that, for the first time, more voters now view Kamala Harris rather than Donald Trump as the candidate representing change. This is a significant shift from earlier polls, where Trump had been seen as the figure of change.
A detailed breakdown of the poll results offers insight into Harris’s growing appeal. Among non-white voters, Harris holds a commanding lead as the candidate of change, with 61 percent backing her compared to 29 percent for Trump. She also enjoys strong support among younger voters, who favor her by a wide margin of 58 percent to 34 percent on the question of being the change candidate.
However, Trump still holds some key advantages in the race. He is viewed as a strong leader by a narrow margin, which could become particularly important given the current global instability, especially in the Middle East. Trump’s leadership credentials might resonate with voters seeking stability in uncertain times.
In terms of personal qualities, Harris is seen more favorably than Trump. A wide majority of voters find Harris to be more honest and trustworthy. Additionally, Harris is perceived as the “more fun” candidate, with 43 percent of likely voters—13 percent of them Republicans—seeing her in this light, according to the poll.
Despite these gains for Harris, Trump maintains an 11-point lead among male voters, a crucial demographic in his base. Additionally, 42 percent of respondents stated that Trump’s policies had directly benefited them, a sign that his policy platform continues to resonate with a substantial portion of the electorate.
Finally, Trump still holds a slight edge in terms of managing the economy. More voters reported trusting Trump over Harris when it comes to handling economic issues, suggesting that the economy could remain a pivotal issue in the race, especially as Election Day approaches.
These findings underscore the intensely competitive nature of the race and indicate that it could come down to the wire as both candidates work to shore up support in the final stretch of the campaign.